At the time where we will celebrate in Beijing, the Asia entry in history, did we see not, paradoxically, a return to America and Europe
The Russian election
Both Russian and American elections could not be more opposite. No uncertainty weighs on the Russian election, its conduct and outcome. The new President, Medvedev, chosen by President Putin, will be elected triumphantly, unless he be struck an unlikely heart attack. Vladimir Putin will become, as he began to suggest, the Prime Minister of Medvedev In this case, it may call into question the logic of the institutions, as if the France was the Fifth Republic in the Fourth Republic to meet the wishes of her prince. However, in Russia, the symbol and reality of power is never were separated. For the first time in the history of the country, the President would become a Vincent Auriol or a RenÃ© Coty, while the real power in the hands of the Prime Minister. Putin is taking a dangerous risk.
Obama in the United States
The American election is much more exciting and fully open. Not only we cannot predict the outcome, but we do not know the identity and number of candidates who will be running in November. Michael Bloomberg seems to want to play the role formerly assigned to Ross Perrot. Who will be the candidate of the Democratic Party The year 2008 will be an extraordinary year, which will allow America to reconcile with itself and with the world. For the first time, the US can elect a black man, who, belonging to a generation of war of the Viet Nam, upholding absolute modernity and would mark the end of the American civil war began in the 1960s. The image of America in the world would know within seconds a true Copernican revolution if face smiling elected thanking its voters, the first Tuesday of November 2008, a young, black, man mother blanche, father African, high in Asia in Muslim schools, first globalized a global American character.
I think we will know very soon if this scenario is possible. As you mind, I hope strongly. After the Bush years, America must find his "soft power" and its "hard power". This man, who does not like the black community, because it is not African-American, seduced the white liberals, is acceptable for a centrist Republican Party and is campaigning at the centre, what troubles the Democrats. If he has not won the primary in New Hampshire (at 2 difference), after those of Iowa, everything is still possible for him.
A culture fear the two terms of President Bush's substitute a culture of hope. With the election of Obama, the most unlikely candidate, America would again dream. I think that an exceptional candidate may be granted in exceptional circumstances. The flexibility of an American President is still very low. In foreign policy, he will have to maintain the US presence in Iraq, remain an ally of Israel and compete with China, the Russia, etc. Domestically, it will not solve the huge trade and budget deficits. However, its essence is its difference.
The France at the head of Europe
The France, it's back, media, and really, on the international scene and in Europe. It will take the Presidency of Europe in July 2008. The return of the France in Europe mean the return of Europe in the world The answer depends largely on the President of the Republic. One of the qualifications of the latter, expect a voluntarism and an exceptional energy, a strong realism and political opportunism that can actually be a quality. However, consistency is released The President of the Republic gives the France all the cards to play the role it intends to play in Europe, including through a rapprochement with the United States the France may be back in 2009 in the NATO military organization. However, the means of the President of the Republic do not appear to live up to its ambitions. Do me not fully coherent European policy. Thus its relationship with the Germany is unnecessarily footprint of aggression. Moreover, attack the ECB, it is also attacking the Germany. In addition, the triumph won by Nicolas Sarkozy with the signing of the Treaty of Lisbon does not mean that all European issues will be resolved in 2008.
I particularly have in mind two fundamental questions that remain. What is the nature of our project What are our borders The major identity crisis facing the Belgium are there one or two Belgium (s) at the end of the year 2008 seems symbolic of the Europe's identity crisis. Is the capital of Europe tomorrow the capital of a nation state that no longer exists Announce the possible fragmentation of the Belgium the end of the Spain and the United Kingdom, as a result of other declarations of independence, Catalonia and Scotland These assumptions are not absurd. I am struck by the return to Europe of nationalism as a strong emotion. But this feeling does not contribute to the deepening of European construction.
The Olympic Games in China
The Beijing Olympic Games will be the event of the year. I do little to the Chinese concerns. I believe in the triumph of China. Some environmental issues are problematic, but I trust the Chinese to turn this event in China's coronation. We will celebrate in Beijing the passage in the history of the West to the East shores of the Atlantic to the Asian shores of the Pacific. This message dedicated to dominate the 2008 year is seen in the architecture and Chinese cultural productions, to be radically oppose Russian cultural productions. The Russians are products of new rich, while the Chinese, largely because they use the services of French architects, create a new modernity. The monopoly of modernity has escaped to the West.
The Iranian risk
Moreover, the risk of intervention against the Iran remains. The reports of the US intelligence services have made such intervention more difficult politically but much easier militarily. The Americans or the Israelis know that the number of targets to be achieved is much lower than that they were set before. Do consider so not that these reports exclude the risk of a military intervention in Iran. Although low, it is real. The consequences of such an offensive on the region and relations between the Islamic world and the Western world would be obviously significant. Bush could send us a sort of "arms of honour": mean us that he cares little affection that we wear him and mark willingness we prove by what he believed to be good for the interests of the United States and for the history of the world. This scenario is not excluded.
A Palestinian State
The creation of a Palestinian State in 2008 does seem unlikely. The political Annapolis Conference and the Paris donor conference involving same logic. It's empowering to the Palestinian Authority to impose to the Palestinian people against Hamas. These two conferences will have been possible only because the region is dominated by fear. In the 1990s, the Oslo process was facilitated by the hope of peace. He has failed. The process of Annapolis and Paris is driven by the fear of the Iran, fundamentalism and the local revolutions. The result is a desire to quickly conclude a peace agreement in an attempt to control the situation. The Palestinians are exhausted and the Israelis are very tired. The respective politicians of both parties are small and the Palestinian territories are marked by a kind of civil war. Finally, the chances of a peace agreement are virtually non-existent in the short term.